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Half-time / Full-time Betting System

An analysis of the 89 games played in the EPL so far this season shows that an interesting opportunity was available for systematic betting of double results (result at half time and full time).

Interested here in double results where one team is winning at half time and the match ends in a draw. The odds for this are generally around 16/1. William Hill online seems to give 16/1 for both of these outcomes, irrespective of who is playing, except in extreme circumstances. Ladbrokes however tend to have one of these outcomes at 14/1 (weaker team scores first) and the other at 20/1 (stronger team scores first). We can safely say that you can get a minimum of 16/1 for these bets.

The table below gives the breakdown of these outcomes in the EPL so far this season.

Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Total
A/D 1 1 2 1 0 1 1 1 0 8
H/D 0 0 1 1 2 0 2 1 1 8
Total 1 1 3 2 2 1 3 2 1 16

The Week across the top represents a group of 10 fixtures (it was 9 once), including midweek programs.

A/D is the number of games that week which had a double result of away team at half time / draw at full time.

H/D is the number of games that week which had a double result of home team at half time / draw at full time.

So three betting strategies were available for singles:-

1. Choose home team to be winning each game at half time and a draw at full time
2. Choose away team to be winning each game at half time and a draw at full time
3. Do both of the above on every EPL game.

The results of such strategies are as follows (based on 16/1 for each bet).

1. You placed 89 units and got a return of 136 units = a profit of 52.8%
2. You placed 89 units and got a return of 136 units = a profit of 52.8%
3. You placed 178 units and got a return of 272 units = a profit of 52.8%

This assumes you cover every game regardless, but maybe it's possible to filter out some highly unlikely candidates and save a bit of stake money. Maybe Man U v Bradford would not have been a good choice for this bet and the 6-0 scoreline seems to back this up.

If you want to know which teams had these results then check the table below.

Home Team / Draw Away Team / Draw
Everton v Derby Derby v Southampton
Chelsea v Arsenal Tottenham v Middlesborough
Bradford v Arsenal Southampton v Liverpool
Derby v Charlton West Ham v Man Utd
Man Utd v Chelsea Derby v Middlesborough
Leicester v Everton West Ham v Liverpool
West Ham v Bradford Derby v Leeds
Ipswich v West Ham Charlton v Coventry

There are any big surprises in there, maybe an elimination rule could be "Don't choose games where a very strong team is home to very weak opposition". That would have ruled a fair few of the 89 games out.

It's worth noting that of the 16 home teams above, 12 of them are in the bottom half of the table.

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